About & methodology

What this is

lastpick.win is a Dota 2 counter picker and draft assistant — enter an enemy draft and see which heroes counter it, why, and how confident the numbers actually are, split by rank bracket. It is free, requires no account, and runs entirely from a static dataset rescored on every patch.

Where the numbers come from

Match data comes from STRATZ. A hero's win rate against another is compared to what their general strength would predict on its own — a hero that is simply strong this patch should not read as a counter to everything just because it wins a lot. That expected win rate is subtracted out, leaving the genuine matchup effect.

Thin samples are shrunk toward that expected result — the same statistical treatment used throughout the site — so a big number on a handful of matches reads as damped, not raw. Every matchup shows its sample size and a confidence tier (low / medium / high) rather than hiding them behind a single figure. Below a minimum sample or minimum effect size, a matchup is not shown at all rather than shown unreliably.

Explanations of why one hero beats another are written from the current patch's official ability text, not from a model's memory of an earlier patch — Dota's abilities are reworked every few weeks, and a stale explanation eventually asserts a mechanic that no longer exists.

Positions (who plays where) come from what players at each bracket actually play, not from Valve's broad role tags — a tag does not distinguish a position 4 from a position 5. Rank, when you sign in with Steam, comes from OpenDota, fetched directly by your browser rather than through this site's own servers.

Rank brackets

The same matchup can differ by several percentage points between Herald and Immortal, and item timings shift by minutes — so every figure on this site is split across four brackets (Herald–Guardian, Crusader–Archon, Legend–Ancient, Divine–Immortal) rather than shown as one global average.

Who built this

lastpick.win is built and maintained by Thoughtgears, an independent software company. Questions or corrections: support@thoughtgears.co.uk. See also the privacy policy.